Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BELNA-19
in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
05 Dec 2019 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone BELNA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
    Exposed population 50 thousand in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 185 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (09 Dec 13:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 157 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 185 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      157 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 45000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 04 Dec 2019 18:00 130 490 thousand No people Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Green 2 05 Dec 2019 06:00 130 670 thousand Few people Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Green 3 05 Dec 2019 18:00 157 850 thousand 50 thousand Madagascar

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 04 Dec 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -6.7, 51.6
          GREEN
          		 2 05 Dec 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -6.7, 50.9
          GREEN
          		 3 05 Dec 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -7.1, 49.9
          GREEN
          		 3 06 Dec 2019 06:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -7.7, 48.6
          GREEN
          		 3 06 Dec 2019 18:00 Category 1 139 no people <1000 people -8.3, 48.1 Seychelles
          GREEN
          		 3 07 Dec 2019 06:00 Category 2 157 no people <1000 people -9.4, 47.5 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
          GREEN
          		 3 07 Dec 2019 18:00 Category 1 148 no people 33000 people -10.7, 47.1 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
          GREEN
          		 3 08 Dec 2019 18:00 Category 1 139 45000 people 190000 people -13.5, 46.1 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 3 09 Dec 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 750000 people -16.7, 45.1 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 3 10 Dec 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -20.3, 44.9 Madagascar
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Madagascar

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Mahajanga Madagascar

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Soalala DWB 43 Civ. Paved No 4100

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Cosmoledo Island Seychelles
          Bali Madagascar
          Soalala MGDWB Madagascar
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.4 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Marotaola, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 09 Dec 2019 13:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (20 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 3 of 05 Dec 2019 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          09 Dec 2019 13:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.4
          09 Dec 2019 13:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.4
          09 Dec 2019 13:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.4
          09 Dec 2019 13:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.4
          09 Dec 2019 13:00 Baly Madagascar  0.4
          09 Dec 2019 11:00 Boanamary Madagascar  0.3
          09 Dec 2019 10:00 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.2
          09 Dec 2019 10:00 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.2
          09 Dec 2019 11:00 Katsepy Madagascar  0.2
          09 Dec 2019 14:00 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.2
          09 Dec 2019 11:00 Majunga Madagascar  0.2
          09 Dec 2019 16:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.2
          09 Dec 2019 18:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.1
          09 Dec 2019 18:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.1
          09 Dec 2019 18:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.1
          09 Dec 2019 11:00 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.1
          09 Dec 2019 18:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
          09 Dec 2019 18:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
          09 Dec 2019 18:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
          09 Dec 2019 12:00 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.1